Country – City – Megacity: Who wins, who loses?

Dialogue forum held on 17 February 2011

Sprawling megacities in developing countries, declining rural populations in the industrialised world – millions throughout the globe are choosing or being forced to move. The second dialogue forum in the series: "Where from? Where to? – Demography and migration" examined the extent to which urban planners and political decision-makers can effectively control this development.

The following figures show what a strong pull cities have. In 1950, only 29% of the world’s population lived in cities. Now it is over 50% and likely to be as much as 69% by 2050, based on UN estimates. This migratory movement, which began with industrialisation over 200 years ago, will not come to a halt until the end of the century. Prof. Philipp Oswalt, Architect and Director of the Bauhaus Dessau Foundation: "By then, shrinkage and growth will be a matter of geographical reorganisation rather than changes in absolute numbers". In his view, the factors that will have a major impact on settlement patterns and give rise to new forms of urban shrinkage will be dwindling oil supplies and climate change. Examples of this are the city of Jakutsk in Russia, where the stability of the buildings is already threatened by permafrost melt, and those Asian megacities whose future is in doubt because of rising sea levels.
 
Conurbations are becoming employment drivers
 
Even now, in the industrialised countries, the major metropolises tend to be the winners and the peripheral regions the losers. The situation in Germany is no different. Prof. Harald A. Mieg of the Geographic Institute of the Humboldt University, Berlin: "Knowledge-intensive services are concentrated within the big cities". Consequently, conurbations are becoming employment drivers, and that in turn is attracting young people. However, the development is taking place in waves, and only a few cities are experiencing continuous growth.
 
The other side of the coin is that people are increasingly leaving some regions. One example is Chemnitz, where the population fell from over 300,000 in 1991 to 244,000 in 2007: a shrinking process that is ongoing. Petra Wesseler, Mayor and Assistant Head of the City's Building Department: "Since 2000, the number of dwellings has decreased by over 17,000 without major social conflict. It will have fallen by another 10,000 by the year 2020". The aim is to harmonise urban-development and housing concerns, or in other words to create attractive residential areas whilst retaining the historical buildings that give an area its character.
 
Shrinking regions do not necessarily have to be the losers
 
Wesseler advocates realistic regional planning. "It's about a division of the roles of city and region and not about competition." It is not essential for a town have its own indoor pool if the neighbouring town already has one. Since economic development goes hand in hand with urban development, Chemnitz and the Chemnitz University of Technology have created a technology park. In the process, an inner city campus has also come about, which is now a driving force for inner-city residential areas. The strategy is paying off. The mayor: "Young people are moving back to Chemnitz and the population has gone up for the first time in 20 years". The Chemnitz example shows that shrinking regions do not necessarily have to be the losers. Oswalt: "Basically, how many people live in a particular area is not important". What counts is offering people a good environment – not targeting a specific number of inhabitants. The hard part is getting the transformation process right.
 
The experts had different views on the extent to which the processes of shrinkage and growth can be controlled. Oswalt: "The influence architecture and urban planning can exert is very limited". Political and economic factors are more important, such as the way commuter allowances, which tend to encourage development urban sprawls, are organised. However, Wesseler maintained: "We're not completely powerless, especially where inner-city planning is concerned". Chemnitz, for example, has managed to revive formerly derelict parts of the inner city, where people can now build homes. "Market conditions must be created and it is up to urban planning to show the way."
 
Far-sighted planning is needed
 
The panel agreed on the issue of whether European cities can be held up elsewhere as examples of megacity growth. Metropolis researcher Mieg commented: "Conditions in those countries are different. A city like Lagos, where the mayor does not even know how many inhabitants there are, is not something that can be organised." Oswalt agreed: "The problem is informal settlements, slums, where people put up shacks willy nilly". There are very few settlements like that in Europe and we therefore have no experience to draw on. Right from the early stages, we had urban planning which designed local structures before growth took place. Oswalt: "More than half of urbanisation is taking place in slums and that really is a problem. The will to give it a proper structure is lacking".
 
Thus the growing numbers of slum-dwellers are clearly the losers in the shift to the cities. Often even basic infrastructure, such as a water supply and sanitation system, is absent. By contrast, the problems Germany faces, like empty office blocks and apartments, are relatively easy to solve, with the help of far-sighted planning. Once again it is the poor world, the developing countries, which are affected the most.
 
The next dialogue forum, which will look at the "Causes of migration: Why does the world migrate?", will be held on 22 March.