We’re getting older and fewer in number – And that’s fine!

Dialogue forum “Demography today: A world in upheaval?” on 11 January 2011

The population is ageing and shrinking and we are having fewer children. This development poses huge challenges for society. What consequences are to be drawn from this fact was the theme of the opening dialogue forum of 2011, which looked at the subject of demographics and migration. Guest speakers at this event, which attracted a large audience, former Vice-Chancellor and Federal Minister of Labour and Social Affairs Franz Müntefering and Vice-President of Jacobs University in Bremen Prof. Ursula M. Staudinger, both acknowledged experts, answered questions from the floor.

Most people see demographic change as a threat. Staudinger explained why: “Forecasts indicate that, by 2030, our level of material wealth will have fallen by 16% if demographic developments take the expected course.” But countries like Switzerland and Denmark have shown that there is production potential on the employment market that can do much to overcome this fall-off in prosperity. The key is for a larger number of older people to remain in employment. 
  
In the debate, we tend to overlook the fact that increased ageing also offers each and every individual new potential, provided we make good use of the additional years we gain from having a greater life expectancy. Staudinger noted that this is because “we ourselves are able to influence the ageing process”. The decrease in our physical and mental capacities can be delayed with appropriate training, endurance sports and movement bringing greater benefits in this respect than relaxation techniques or yoga. However, the Vice-President of Jacobs University harbours no illusions: “The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak.” 
  
We are neither all-powerful nor powerless
 
How should our politicians react to the demographic changes? Franz Müntefering: “Not with fear and panic, even though the dynamics of change in Germany are something we are not used to.” We are neither all-powerful nor powerless. It is up to us to approach the changes positively. “Politicians are not omniscient, and they too are looking for new solutions.” They find themselves on cultivated ground which has to be replanted gradually and without knowing what the world will actually be like a few decades from now. 
  
To counter the shortage of qualified staff, Müntefering proposes better education and professional qualifications. “The fact that 70,000 pupils leave school every year with no qualifications is nothing short of scandalous for this country,” he said. But the lack of qualified people cannot be remedied without at least some recourse to immigration. The SPD politician believes people should become more involved in the community as they grow older. “There’s no such thing as the rocking chair in democracy.” Now that families no longer play the same key role, society needs organised solidarity. Müntefering was not able to allay concerns about how we provide for our old age, something that many people worry about. The contributions alone are no longer enough to fund our retirement. We need to think about salary levels and working lives. As well as our health, another factor crucial to our staying in employment in old age is whether we enjoy our jobs. Müntefering criticised the civil service mentality which sees steady upward progress in your job up to retirement. “There are more and more careers where life is more like a ballistic curve. Something we all see happening in football.” 
  
Novelty and change are good for us
 
Staudinger also called for a new mindset in the world of employment: “ Our lifetime structures have to be different from those our parents and grandparents knew.” Living life by sections, starting with a large amount of education and followed by work and then retirement, is a thing of the past. We need to use the additional years to give ourselves more time in mid-life and keep alternating between phases devoted to work, education and family. This also helps us keep burnout, the fastest growing occupational disease, at bay. 
  
Staudinger urged: “It should be the norm for people to do a masters or bachelors degree even in their 40s and then embark on new careers, even if today’s HR consultants still see things differently”, adding: “We need an employment market where changing jobs doesn’t threaten our livelihood.” Novelty and change may be good for us but our future career biographies will place huge demands on each and every one of us. We have to ensure that people who have not had a good education do not fall still further behind because they are less able to take charge of themselves.
 
Müntefering warned: “We squeeze children and career in between the ages of 35 and 50”. We have to take a more imaginative approach. Making the transition to other areas or to helping others are enormous tasks that have to be solved by society as a whole and not just by the legislator. At most, the politicians can draw individual measures from the overall picture, e.g. where long term care insurance or childcare are concerned. 
 
Economic systems can flourish without growth
 
Staudinger believes the falling birth rate gives us an opportunity to think about how the community is organised and civilisation’s ongoing development instead of pursuing the same old lines of thought. To remain a socially just and productive society, we will have to create enough space to accommodate as many lifestyles as possible. There are enough studies to show that investing in quality, i.e. education, can more than make up for the reduction in quantity. “We’re getting older and fewer in number – And that’s fine and means we make the best of the situation.” She predicted that, in future, Nobel prizes would be awarded for research into economic systems that can cope and flourish without growth. Like Müntefering, she does not believe migration can entirely offset Germany’s shrinking population. 
  
Each of us needs to react to the demographic challenges. The path we pursue is something we alone can determine. The cultural change starts in our daily conversations and interactions with our own neighbours, as well as in the community. And having a positive view of old age can even prolong life expectancy still further.
 
The next dialogue forum, “Country – City – Megacity: Who wins, who loses?”, will be held on 17 February 2011.