Population Development

The world population is growing incessantly, at the rate of more than 150 people every minute. Growth is particularly strong in the developing countries, while in the industrialised countries the main problem is ageing of the population.

The growth in the world population has accelerated tremendously in recent decades. Although it was not until around 1800 that the human population first hit the one billion mark, in the 20th century alone the population quadrupled. According to United Nations estimates, till 2050, just another 2.5 billion will be added to the current figure of around 6.7 billion people.

Around 133 million people are born and 55 million die each year – the world population is growing by around 80 million a year. However, geographical analysis reveals extremely uneven distribution: around 60% of the world population live in Asia and only 5% in North America.

The increase in population will be the greatest in 49 countries that the United Nations counts among the poorest countries in the world. In these "Least Developed Countries" (LDCs) the population will more than double by the year 2050 – from 804 million to 1.74 billion. Central Africa will show the biggest population growth in the next 43 years: the number of people will almost treble – from 104 million in 2003 to 305 million in 2050. The distribution among rural and urban areas is not balanced either.

At the same time, there is a socio-economic vicious circle. Poverty thus goes hand in hand with high birth rates, and the consumption of resources associated with the burgeoning population exacerbates the shortage of drinking water.

The wealthy countries north of the equator have quite different problems owing to a decline in population and ageing. But some "Newly Industrializing Countries" (NIC) too – China for example – are affected by this. According to United Nations forecasts, by 2050 above 100 million people in China (7% of the population) will be over 80 years of age; in Germany, the figure will be 10 million (13% of the population).

Humanity is thus becoming older overall – and more numerous. The trend is very difficult to halt. Like a locomotive with a long stopping distance, it takes several decades to slow down the demographic trend. In its projects, the Munich Re Foundation is therefore involved with the subject of the population development.