New Summer Academy programme: World risk and adaptation futures
A leading global challenge today centers on the capacity to make appropriate decisions that will navigate countries and communities towards a safe, sustainable future. Uncertainty about future risk trends plays a central role in whether or not policy makers and practitioners can make decisions that help society adapt to climate risks and capture the opportunities ahead.
Risk practitioners and political decision makers need to consider the expected changes in climatic and social risk factors when trying to assess the level of risk in a particular future point in time. Policy makers and practitioners have to answer to their electorates: Their communities and employees care deeply about these dimensions that affect their lives now and in the future. Their decisions need to be informed about future demographic change, e. g. where and how people live in rural and urban areas. Factors such as land use conversion or industrialization have a substantial influence on the future trajectories and patterns in exposure. This is especially true in highly dynamic developing countries and emerging economies. Likewise, changes for instance in social protection systems or insurance regimes will greatly influence future levels of vulnerability.
Decision makers and practitioners in UN processes — implementing the SDGs, Paris Agreement, Sendai, the New Urban Agenda — and at the regional, national, and municipal level require new information on future risk trajectories and about the exposure of people or assets. And they need to know about the futre vulnerabilities of these values to disruption stressors including climate stress.
In spite of this pressing need, decision makers often do not get the full picture about future risk trends and adaptation pathways. This is in part because science that supports decision making focuses on modeling and projecting future trends in environmental hazards, such as sea level rise or cyclone activity and tends to neglect social and economic dimensions.
The Summer Academy programme jointly organized by United Nations University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security and Munich Re Foundation, in partnership with the UNFCCC, is helping close this policy-practice-knowledge gap. Starting with the question “What do decision makers in policy and practice need to know about risk and adaptation futures?”, each partner contributes to the unique environment of the summer academy for generating science and knowledge contributions back into policy and practice.
Objectives of the Summer Academy
Format and outcomes of the Summer Academy programme
In addition, the summer academies will feature 2-3 invited high-level keynote speakers. Each summer academy is foreseen to lead to the coordinated production of a number of publications. Key findings of each summer schools will also be fed into the annual World Risk Futures Report, published by UNU-EHS.
The academy series is designed to to directly facilitate the application of scientific knowledge and methodologies in policy and action. The targeted domains include the global institutions for risk reduction and adaptation (e.g. the management of the Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund), national ministries behind adaptation policies and disaster risk reduction or local decision-makers (e.g. at city scale). Besides state organizations, a transfer and application of methods and knowledge is also directed at other actors from the private sector (e.g. insurers) and civil society (e.g. non-profit associations or philanthropic foundations).
Demographic change (which is closely linked with urbanization) will greatly alter the trajectory of future exposure and vulnerability. Typically in disaster situations, the young, the elderly and the physically or mentally challenged are especially predisposed to suffer harm. Therefore, preventive action and disaster preparation hinges on a sound understanding of the size and shape of these population groups in the future, as well as the spatial variability within countries or even provinces and cities. While expertise from the demographic sciences can offer powerful entry points into such assessment, methods need to be transferred and advanced to fit the needs of future-oriented exposure and vulnerability assessments across different scales.
Social protection is of key importance for shaping human vulnerability towards floods, droughts, storms and other hazards. It includes important elements such as health insurance, cash transfer assistance, disability benefits or food assistance programmes. All of these are of key relevance for mitigating vulnerability and buffering the effects of future climatic hazards. At the same time, they are currently under a massive transformation in many countries, mostly with uncertain outcomes and unclear effects on vulnerability. Assessing plausible scenarios of future trajectories in social protection – and especially its breadth and depth – is therefore of great urgency. The existing methodological toolkits and bodies of knowledge are, however, strikingly thin to date, calling for substantially increased scientific efforts.
26 April 2018