The 2020s have shattered temperature records on land and at sea, underscoring that climate change is now a systemic risk. Yet political attention is fragmented, competing with security pressures, fiscal constraints, demographic change, and the rapid expansion of AI. The central challenge is no longer awareness, but translating climate knowledge into near-term decisions.
On 12 February 2026, around 30 senior representatives from government, humanitarian agencies, finance, science, and the private sector met in Munich for a closed-door consultation hosted by the Munich Re Foundation and co-convened by Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The aim: identify near-term climate risks to critical systems and humanitarian operations, clarify decision-relevant data needs, and outline practical steps for 2026 policy and finance processes.
Critical systems under strain
Climate impacts increasingly intersect with energy security, geopolitics, and technological transformation. Melting Arctic sea ice, surging electricity demand from AI and heatwaves, and dependence on imported fossil fuels illustrate how climate and security dynamics reinforce each other. Attacks on energy infrastructure and shifting trade patterns are accelerating diversification efforts, investment in critical minerals, and the expansion of distributed renewable energy systems. For defence and civil-protection actors, adaptation capacity is now integral to operational readiness. Base location, power supply, logistics, and maintenance must align with climate assessments that match three- to five-year planning cycles. Coastal bases, ports, and subsea cables were highlighted as assets where resilience has direct security implications.
© Antonia Witthoff / Munich Re Foundation
By pairing foresight with preparedness, we can protect critical systems and strengthen democratic resilience. Working with Perry World House and partners here in Munich helps move from analysis to decisions that matter in 2026
Robert Habeck
former Vice Chancellor, Germany
and keynote speaker at the event
Renewables are often the lowest-cost option for new generation, but scaling is constrained by grid bottlenecks and limited capital. Public support depends on visible community benefits – local jobs, shared ownership, and transparent communication of risks and trade-offs. Improved catastrophe-loss databases and spatial risk tools are helping decision-makers prioritize investments in grids, storage, and protective infrastructure under conditions of rising climate extremes and electricity demand.
Strengthening humanitarian preparedness
Extreme heat, storms, and droughts are eroding livelihoods and destabilizing food systems. Water scarcity, volatile markets, and disrupted trade routes are driving up humanitarian needs. Timely climate information – from seasonal forecasts to early storm warnings – can significantly reduce losses and enable earlier action. Technological advances, including satellite-based flood monitoring, such as innovations Airbus Foundation presented, allow humanitarian actors to pre-position supplies and maintain access in crisis contexts. Anticipatory finance mechanisms are becoming more important: trigger-based facilities shorten the gap between forecast and response, a critical advantage as needs rise and funding tightens. Trust remains essential. Transparent post-event reviews and clear demonstration of service continuity help sustain public and political support for preparedness investments.
© Antonia Witthoff / Munich Re Foundation
Climate trends are shifting faster than many institutions are designed to respond. Near term foresight turns knowledge into decision options that strengthen resilience.
Koko Warner
Perry World House
From risk data to strategic decisions
The analytical foundations of climate-risk intelligence – hazard maps, real-time satellite data, and catastrophe databases – are improving rapidly. Platforms, e.g. such as those developed and presented by Munich Re demonstrate how climate projections and historical loss data can inform investment planning. UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) enables fast, coordinated aid when crises strike including through anticipatory actions that empower communities to take actions that save lives and protect livelihoods before predictable hazards hit.
The next step is to ensure such intelligence is tailored to budgeting, procurement, and infrastructure decisions within three- to five-year horizons. This consultation on the eve of the Munich Security Conference 2026 created new networks and built the fundament for further discussions.
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